It's been 13 days since the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles clinched their respective conference championships, and the clock is ticking down to Super Bowl LII in Minnesota. Now that we've had two weeks to anticipate the matchup, who will take home the Lombardi trophy on Sunday night?
Game Information
Time: 6:30 PM ET / 3:30 PM PT
TV: NBC
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Line: Patriots by 4.5 (Current) Patriots by 6.0 (Opening)
Patriots Super Bowl Record: 5-4
Eagles Super Bowl Record: 0-2
How They Got Here
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| Courtesy of USA Today |
New England stumbled out of the gate, dropping a rare home opener and starting 2-2 on the season. Questions of a Super Bowl hangover were raised, and with Julian Edelman out for the year, there was serious doubt that this might not be as successful a year for the Patriots.
Since that 2-2 start, the Patriots lost only a single game the rest of the season (a 27-20 loss in Miami, where Tom Brady has historically struggled.) Besides that, the Patriots are virtually unblemished since their 33-30 loss to the Carolina Panthers. One could argue the Patriots didn't face the toughest competition after Week 4, but they finished 4-0 against teams that would eventually make the playoffs.
After a first round bye, New England rolled over Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans before winning a hard-fought AFC Championship against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars elite defense gave the Patriots trouble, forcing many punts in situations the Patriots are accustomed to overcoming.
Now, Brady and coach Bill Belichick are back for the second straight year, looking for their third Super Bowl win in the last four years.
The Eagles were expected to make strides behind Carson Wentz after a 7-9 campaign in 2016, but no one expected them to fly as high as this. Like the Patriots, the Eagles suffered an early season loss to the Chiefs, but after that they quickly hit their groove.
Philadelphia entered Seattle at 9-1 before a 24-10, reality check-inducing loss. The Eagles retained the best record in the conference, but there were concerns they couldn't beat good teams. The following week served as a turning point in more ways than one.
The Eagles outlasted the NFC-West champion-bound Los Angeles Rams 43-35 on the road, proving they could play with the best of them. But the win was extremely bittersweet, with Carson Wentz tearing his ACL, sidelining him for 8-10 months.
There are definitely worse backup quarterback options than Nick Foles, who had playoff experience in Philadelphia already, but many were quick to write off a Foles-led Eagles squad. Sure, Wentz was great and got them to 11-2, but without him, could Foles really replicate his success?
While there may be some drop off, Foles is no scrub. I wrote at the time that losing Wentz didn't discount the Eagles from Super Bowl contention, and here they are 6 weeks later.
In the playoffs, the Eagles are underdogs for the third straight week, after beating the Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings in the playoffs. Philadelphia grinded out a tight win over the Falcons usually electric offense, and then blew out the Vikings usually stellar defense. Neither team was as well-rounded as the Patriots, but the Eagles wins over these two styles of play were impressive
Picking the Game
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| Courtesy of USA Today |
In two polls taken a week apart on my Twitter (shameless plug: please follow!) my followers shifted from a small Eagles favoring the day after they beat the Vikings to a more decisive Patriots pick last Monday. (Disclaimer: Smaller sample size on second poll)
We’ll poll at different times in the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl to see any shift in opinion: on Day 1, Monday, who ya got? #Eagles #Patriots— Sak Sports Blog (@SakSports) January 22, 2018
Now that a week has passed, have opinions changed about the #SuperBowl? Or do you stand by your initial pick? Who wins, #Patriots or #Eagles?— Sak Sports Blog (@SakSports) January 29, 2018
The Patriots and Eagles both finished near the top in major offensive and defensive categories. They finished in the top five for both points per game and points allowed per game, my preferred metric for measuring offenses and defenses.
New England finished with the second most points per game (28.6) and the 5th-least points allowed per game (18.5). Philadelphia finished 3rd in points for, (also rounded to 28.6) and 4th in fewest points against (18.4). While the Eagles offense has taken a slight toll with Foles, he's still very capable, evidenced by his 38-point performance against the NFL's top defense.
If the Patriots defense wasn't also elite, I would find it easy to favor the Eagles in this matchup. But for as much hype as Philadelphia's defense gets, the Patriots are nearly as good. Specifically, they are masters at adjusting throughout the game before suffocating teams in the fourth quarter.
Three of Tom Brady's greatest recent wins (Super Bowl 48 over the Seahawks, Super Bowl 51 over the Falcons and the 2018 AFC Championship over the Jaguars) were fueled by elite defensive performances in the fourth quarter. They allowed 6 points in those three quarters of football. No matter how good Brady is, even if he scored on every possession in those final quarters, he would be 0-3 without the defense's ability to make adjustments and clamp down late in games.
To beat the Patriots, the Eagles will probably have to put up at least 25-30 points. Even with their top defense, Brady will find ways to score in his 8th career Super Bowl. And if he has a lead in the fourth quarter? Good luck coming back against that Patriots defense.
But if the Eagles can jump out to a lead and hold on to it? Then they have as good a chance as any team this year to beat New England. The key factor will be how they nurse the lead in the second half. They need to continue scoring to avoid a potential Brady comeback, but also need to hold on to the ball and eat some clock. They need to play conservative yet aggressive. Does that make any sense? Not really, but that's how difficult it can be to beat Tom Brady in the postseason.
Tight end Rob Gronkowski will play after suffering a concussion against the Jaguars, and could easily be a game-breaker if the Eagles can't defend him. In Super Bowl 46, Gronkowksi was also coming off an injury, and though it didn't hold him back too much, you still have to wonder what would have happened if he was 100%. Will he be at or near full health this time?
New England finished with the second most points per game (28.6) and the 5th-least points allowed per game (18.5). Philadelphia finished 3rd in points for, (also rounded to 28.6) and 4th in fewest points against (18.4). While the Eagles offense has taken a slight toll with Foles, he's still very capable, evidenced by his 38-point performance against the NFL's top defense.
If the Patriots defense wasn't also elite, I would find it easy to favor the Eagles in this matchup. But for as much hype as Philadelphia's defense gets, the Patriots are nearly as good. Specifically, they are masters at adjusting throughout the game before suffocating teams in the fourth quarter.
Three of Tom Brady's greatest recent wins (Super Bowl 48 over the Seahawks, Super Bowl 51 over the Falcons and the 2018 AFC Championship over the Jaguars) were fueled by elite defensive performances in the fourth quarter. They allowed 6 points in those three quarters of football. No matter how good Brady is, even if he scored on every possession in those final quarters, he would be 0-3 without the defense's ability to make adjustments and clamp down late in games.
To beat the Patriots, the Eagles will probably have to put up at least 25-30 points. Even with their top defense, Brady will find ways to score in his 8th career Super Bowl. And if he has a lead in the fourth quarter? Good luck coming back against that Patriots defense.
But if the Eagles can jump out to a lead and hold on to it? Then they have as good a chance as any team this year to beat New England. The key factor will be how they nurse the lead in the second half. They need to continue scoring to avoid a potential Brady comeback, but also need to hold on to the ball and eat some clock. They need to play conservative yet aggressive. Does that make any sense? Not really, but that's how difficult it can be to beat Tom Brady in the postseason.
Tight end Rob Gronkowski will play after suffering a concussion against the Jaguars, and could easily be a game-breaker if the Eagles can't defend him. In Super Bowl 46, Gronkowksi was also coming off an injury, and though it didn't hold him back too much, you still have to wonder what would have happened if he was 100%. Will he be at or near full health this time?
Why the Patriots will win
- Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will make the Eagles defense for the smallest of mistakes.
- The Patriots defense is so good in the second half, if the Eagles don't have the lead in the fourth quarter they'll need a miracle to come back.
- The organization is very comfortable in this position: 3rd trip in 4 years
- Rob Gronkowski is playing and could tear up Philadelphia's defense
Why the Eagles will win
- Nick Foles is highly capable of playing well and taking care of the ball.
- If the run game gets going, could keep Patriots defense guessing
- Big play ability could lead to scores on otherwise dead drives
- Defense is elite and could shut down Brady: but for how long?
Prediction
Foles and the Eagles jump out to a 14-3 lead at halftime, and the Patriots tie the game 20-20 before the end of the third quarter. In the final quarter of the 2017-18 NFL season, the Patriots elite defense combined with Brady's Hall of Fame quarterbacking leads the Patriots to a 30-23 Super Bowl victory.
Patriots win 30-23
By Billy Sakmann
Founder, Sak Sports Blog
Cover image courtesy of USA Today
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