The Philadelphia Eagles finished the season tied for the best record in the NFL at 13-3, and had a defense and rushing attack that both finished in the top five in the league. So why are the top-seeded Eagles playing underdog against the Atlanta Falcons?
After beating the Los Angeles Rams, the Falcons come in as three-point road favorites over the NFC's top seed. This is the first time under the current playoff format that a #1 seed has played their first playoff game as an underdog.
It's obvious why oddsmakers are betting against the Eagles: the absence of MVP candidate Carson Wentz. Wentz tore his ACL in Philadelphia's 43-35 victory over the Rams, ending his season, and in the minds of many, the Eagles season.
I already wrote, in the wake of the injury, that the quarterback swap doesn't necessarily doom the Eagles. Losing a starting quarterback hurts, especially considering the great season Wentz was having. But Foles isn't just any backup, he's had some solid starting experience and has been in the league for some time now. He's also been playing for a few weeks now, so he won't come in cold.
In Foles first start of the season, he wasted no time, throwing four touchdowns against the New York Giants. Obviously the Giants defense hasn't played up to par this season, but Foles ability to capitalize in his first NFL start of the year is promising.
The following game against the Raiders, Foles struggled, completing only 50% of his passes and getting picked off. The Eagles still found a way to win to improve to 13-2.
If Foles can be just a little better than he was against the Raiders, he doesn't even need to be as good as he was against the Giants. Consistent play somewhere in the middle of those two performances is all the Eagles need to advance in the playoffs. There's no reason the Eagles can't reach Super Bowl LII with back to back home games, if Foles performs decently.
So far I've been defending Foles at quarterback, but there's a bigger reason the Eagles can win on Saturday. There are 52 other players on the roster that aren't Nick Foles.
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| Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount headlined the Eagles 3rd-ranked rushing offense. (Photo: USA Today) |
Players on both offense and defense that willed the Eagles to their 13-3 record by playing hard every Sunday. It's a quarterback league, sure, but the Eagles rushing game and defense are more than capable of swinging the game in their favor.
With LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi in the backfield, Philadelphia finished 3rd in the NFL in rushing with 132.2 yards per game. The Eagles will look to establish a run game early against Atlanta, and have the luxury of two runningbacks with different styles to throw at the Falcons defense.
The Eagles might not trust Foles enough to get into a shootout with the Falcons, so their formula to success remains simple: stop the Falcons from scoring.
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| The Philadelphia Eagles had the 4th least points allowed per game in the NFL. (Photo: PhiladelphiaEagles.com) |
The 18.4 points per game the Eagles gave up was the 4th-lowest in the NFL, behind only the Minnesota Vikings and Jacksonville Jaguars, both alive in the playoffs, as well as the Los Angeles Chargers. If the defense can limit Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and the Falcons to less than 20 points, Foles will have a much easier task. If the Eagles can completely shut down the Falcons offense, Foles might not have to do much at all.
And again, the Eagles finished 7-1 at home this season, but really 7-0 if you exclude the Week 17 matchup with the Dallas Cowboys where many starters rested.
Finally, the Atlanta Falcons did look good last week against the Rams, but they still are the lowest seed in the playoffs and far from consistent this season.
Consider also the Falcons record against teams that made the playoffs, in both the AFC and NFC: 2-5. They defeated the Carolina Panthers in Week 17 and New Orleans Saints in Week 14.
To the Falcons credit, they are heating up at the right time, with a 7-2 stretch including their victory over the Rams in the Wildcard round.
It wouldn't be surprising to see the Falcons win, but I still don't know if I agree with Atlanta being favored by three points. At worst, it should be a straight pick 'em game. And if I had to right now, I would pick the Eagles.
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