Both games tell a similar tale: an established team with a veteran quarterback taking on a high flying offensive team led by a young signal-caller. Tom Brady has been to the AFC Championship just a few times (this will be his 13th). Patrick Mahommes is capping off his first season as an NFL starter. Drew Brees plays in his 3rd NFC title game, with an even 1-1 record so far. Jared Goff has taken the Rams further in each of his three seasons (two full seasons.)
All four offenses can light up the scoreboard, which should be a treat for fans on Sunday. The Kansas City Chiefs led the league in scoring (35.3 PPG) with the Los Angeles Rams right on their tail (32.9 PPG). The New Orleans Saints could've been in the 34-35 PPG game range, but a couple late season duds lowered their average to "only" third in the league at 31.5 PPG. The efficient New England Patriots offense churned out the fourth most in the league (27.3 PPG.)
So the orders of the day on Sunday will be high-flying offenses and dramatic quarterback matchups. Buckle up for my picks on how the games will play out.
(I'm 6-2 in picks this postseason. Feel free to check back on my Wildcard Picks and Divisional Round Picks)
#2 Los Angeles Rams at #1 New Orleans Saints
Time: Sunday, January 20, 3:05 PM ET
Line: New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Over/Under: 57
Jared Goff got his first career playoff win last week over the Dallas Cowboys. This week's opponent is tougher, as he plays Drew Brees and the Saints in the Superdome. But the Rams offense can travel, as they're 6-2 on the road this season to match the Saints 6-2 home record.
The Saints battled back out of a 14-0 hole to win 20-14 last week and hand Nick Foles a playoff loss. Their defense was integral in allowing the comeback, as letting up another touchdown at any point meant the Saints probably wouldn't have won that game.
New Orleans beat the Rams, in New Orleans, by a score of 45-35 in the midst of a three-game streak where the Saints offense put up 45 points or more. The problem is, that was two months ago. In the Saints last five "meaningful games" (starters rested in Week 17), the Saints have scored 20 (vs. Eagles), 31, 12, 28, and 10. Obviously the 28-31 point games are still there, but the offense has been far from consistent in recent weeks.
Los Angeles defense couldn't stop Brees in the dome in their first meeting. Will they make adjustments? The Saints were able to win that matchup by getting ahead early and limiting Todd Gurley to 13 carries. After last week's ground explosion, the Rams will try to establish the run game early and often in New Orleans. Their success in doing so will likely dictate if they can win the game.
The Saints are a great team, and earned the #1 seed with a head-to-head victory over LA. But in the rematch, I see Goff and Gurley leading the Rams into the Super Bowl. New Orleans has the weapons to win this game, so I wouldn't be surprised if they do, but I predict the Rams will steamroll into Super Bowl 53.
Rams win 28-20
#2 New England Patriots at #1 Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-3.0)
Over/Under: 56
Tom Brady and the New England Patriots may be lamenting the fact they're underdogs for the first time in over three years, but who would be favored against the Kansas City Chiefs? Although they finished with one less win than the Saints and Rams, they still lay legitimate claim to calling themselves the league's best team. An NFL-high 35.3 PPG powered the Chiefs to 12 wins despite a 24th-ranked scoring defense.
The Chiefs defense is suspect at times but also opportunistic and aggressive. Don't expect Brady to tear them up the way he did to the Chargers.
New England employs a more-balanced combination of scoring (27.3 PPG) and a top-ten defense (20.3 PPG).
The Patriots are 3 point underdogs, and a win to get back to the Super Bowl would hardly be a surprising outcome. It won't be an incredible upset if New England wins, but the 2nd best team in the AFC outdueling the best team in the AFC.
New England's best chance of winning is to strike early and keep Patrick Mahommes off the field. This usually leads quarterbacks, especially young ones, to overcompensate and make mistakes.
But the setting of this game matters more than on the NFC side. The Chiefs always hold down Arrowhead Stadium, even when the team isn't great. But with a great team this year, Kansas City went 7-1 at home and 8-1 including last week. The Patriots were the only NFL team undefeated at home, but they only managed a 3-5 road record. And with Tom Brady's typical regular season dominance, he's rarely forced to play road playoff games. Hilariously, he has less road playoff wins (3) than former New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez (4).
Earlier this season, the Patriots outlasted the Chiefs 43-40 in New England. The experience Mahommes has gained from that game and since then, paired with the change in location of the game is enough to swing the odds in the Chiefs favor.
Chiefs win 38-28
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Photo Credits
Header: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
Rams-Saints: Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times
Chiefs-Patriots: Adam Glanzman/Getty Images
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