Road wins will be tougher to come by in the second round of the NFL postseason. The four home teams are a combined 28-4, with the New England Patriots leading the pack at 8-0. The opposing road teams have road records at or above .500: except the Dallas Cowboys, the only team switching from home to road since last week.
Without further ado let's dive in to this week's picks:
#6 Indianapolis Colts (11-6) at #1 Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
Time: Saturday, 4:35 PM ET
Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Two quarterbacks expected to be faces of the league for years to come square off with an AFC Championship appearance on the line. Andrew Luck is looking to make his comeback season even sweeter, while Patrick Mahomes tries to cement the Chiefs as one of the most dominant teams in the league.
Indianapolis's defense played well last week against Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans. Mahomes and the Chiefs aerial attack is obviously more ferocious. The Chiefs four losses all came to elite teams (Rams, Patriots, Seahawks, Chargers) who qualified for the postseason. In their lowest-scoring loss, they scored 28 points, and in their highest losing total, a whopping 51 points.
The Colts aren't going to win this game by shutting down the Chiefs offense. They can only hope to control the ball and time of possession. If Andrew Luck can get the ball at the end of the game with a chance to win, Indianapolis could pull off the upset. But if Kansas City gets going early, the Colts won't be able to keep up.
Chiefs win 34-27
#4 Dallas Cowboys (11-6) at #2 Los Angeles Rams (13-3)
Time: Saturday, 8:15 PM ET
Line: Los Angles Rams (-7)
With the playoff monkey over their back, the Dallas Cowboys are a dangerous team in the playoffs. They do carry a subpar 3-5 road record into the postseason however, which could make getting to the Super Bowl a challenge.
In the 2017-18 breakout seasons of Jared Goff and Todd Gurley, the Rams scored the most points in the NFL and earned the #3 seed. They then treated their home fans to a 26-13 loss despite solid performances from their dynamic duo.
This year, the Rams were scoring in bunches again, highlighted by a 54-51 win over the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs. The Rams lost tough matchups in Chicago and New Orleans, falling at home only to Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Los Angeles is favored because they have a lot going for them: an elite offense, opportunistic defense, and home-field advantage. The X-Factor in this game is how Los Angeles builds on last year's playoff failure.
On the Cowboys side of the ball, they need to get Ezekiel Elliot the ball early and often. Just like beating the Chiefs, beating the Rams requires ball and clock control.
While I could just as easily see the Rams blowing the Cowboys out of Los Angeles, something tells me this team will have their own playoff bugaboos. And in that case, Dak Prescott leads Dallas to an NFC Championship matchup with either the New Orleans Saints, or in a bitter-sweet scenario, a home game against their rival Eagles.
Cowboys win 24-16
#5 Los Angeles Chargers (13-4) at #2 New England Patriots (11-5)
Time: 1:05 PM ET
Line: New England Patriots (-4)
This is an unfortunate matchup for Philip Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers. LA was in play for the AFC's top seed in the final weeks, but settled for the 5th seed. After taking care of the Baltimore Ravens on the road, the Chargers next stop is New England.
The Patriots, by almost all metrics, regressed this year. They still managed an 11-5 record, another slight regression, and although for a time it looked as though they'd have to host a Wildcard matchup for the first time in nearly a decade, they secured the AFC's second-best seed.
That's a formula for success under Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. At home, in the postseason, the duo is formidable. The Patriots 17th game has come after a bye week for years, so this is becoming routine for New England.
The Chargers are one of the toughest AFC opponents the Patriots have to handle in recent years. Los Angeles is a rare team that boasts a better road record (8-1 including the playoffs) than home record (5-3). But Philip Rivers is 0-6 in his career against Tom Brady.
I think many fans would like to see a different team represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but at least for another week, the Patriots season lives in as they systemically and formulaically beat the Chargers. One knock I have on the Chargers was their inability to put the Baltimore Ravens away late in last week's game. If Lamar Jackson can start cracking the defense after three quarters, imagine what Brady can do with some halftime adjustments.
Patriots win 27-18
#6 Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) at #1 New Orleans Saints (13-3)
Time: 4:40 PM ET
Line: New Orleans Saints (-8)
Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints finished tied for the best record in the league, and with two of the three losses coming Week 1 and in Week 17 game with rested starters, they're arguably the league's most unbeatable team. Their only other loss was a 13-10 fall to the Dallas Cowboys in Jerry World.
There's still some concern, as the Saints offense only topped 30 points once in the final five weeks. Earlier in the season, New Orleans scored 30 or more points seven times in an eight game stretch. The Saints offense scored 28, 12, and 31 in their last three meaningful games of the season. If New Orleans struggles to score in this playoff matchup, the legend of Nick Foles could continue to grow.
Nick Foles has won four straight starts, three of them in one-score fashion. He led the Eagles to an outstanding 30-23 win in Los Angeles, a narrow 32-30 win over the Houston Texans, and of course a 16-15 playoff victory over the Chicago Bears highlighted by a missed/blocked field goal to end the game.
Chicago's defense is elite, but it's hard to hand the game ball to Nick Foles for his performance. Philadelphia's defense allowed Foles the chance at such a victory, even if he was clutch in his game-winning drive. Having 10 points in the fourth quarter likely won't do it against the Saints.
I see Brees using his experience and weapons to will the Saints to an NFC Championship game they would be guaranteed to host.
Saints win 31-17
Header Photo: Tom Fox/The Dallas Morning News
Photo #1:Via Yahoo Sports
Photo #2: Kevin Kuo/USA Today Sports
Photo #3: Al Bello/Getty Images
Photo #4: Geoff Burke/USA Today Sports
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