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NFL Week 10 Picks

This week's picks theme is Eyes on the Playoffs. At the rough halfway point in the 2018-19 NFL season, the playoff standings are beginning to take shape. The Rams, Chiefs, and Patriots lead the pack, and after that, there's plenty of intrigue.

Can the Redskins maintain the NFC East with the Eagles and Cowboys on their backs? Can the Chargers challenge for the AFC's best seed? And in a loaded potential NFC Wildcard playoff race, the Packers, Panthers, Falcons, Seahawks, and Bears/Vikings could all be competing for just two spots.


Week 9 Recap

Through Week 8, I held a 59-45-2 record picking games. I was unable to publish my Week 9 picks, so you'll have to take my word for who I went with. Overall, it was a pretty strong week, where I went 8-5 to improve to 67-50-2.

Correct Picks
  1. 49ers over Raiders
  2. Bears over Bills 
  3. Chiefs over Browns
  4. Vikings over Lions
  5. Falcons over Redskins
  6. Panthers over Buccaneers
  7. Texans over Broncos
  8. Patriots over Packers
Incorrect Picks
  1. Jets over Dolphins
  2. Ravens over Steelers
  3. Seahawks over Chargers
  4. Rams over Saints
  5. Cowboys over Titans

Thursday Night

Carolina Panthers (6-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2-1)

An exciting Thursday Night matchup with playoff implacations on both sides. The Panthers have played eight games, but only three times away from Carolina (1-2 on the road.) The Steelers haven't been able to defend Heinz Field well either, with an even 2-2 record.

This football game should come down to the X's and O's and the playmaking. Both quarterbacks can move the ball, but Roethlisberger has been more efficient through the air, while Newton has employed a mixed attack.

Both teams are exceeding my own expectations I set for them this season. Both teams have been hot. This is one of the toughest picks of Week 10, so in toss-up fashion, I'll pick the home Steelers.  

Steelers win 27-24

Sunday

Detroit Lions (3-5) at Chicago Bears (5-3)

Don't look now, but the Bears hold the NFC's 3rd seed as well as 1st place in the NFC North. The Vikings (5-3-1) are right on their tail though, with a tie the only thing separating the two teams. This creates a scenario for Chicago: they need to take care of teams like Detroit to stay in front of the pack. Speaking of pack, I don't think the Bears and Vikings have to worry about Green Bay stealing the division this season.

Will Mitch Trubisky crack under what feels like a must-win, to keep the Bears in control of their own destiny? He could at some point, but not at home, as the Bears improve to 6-3.

Bears win 22-17

New Orleans Saints (7-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)

One of the most exciting matchups I'm looking forward to from a jersey standpoint. The gold and orange make for some interesting color schemes. Especially the gold Saints against the black and orange crowd in Cincinnati.

Oh, as far as the game? Saints roll to an easy win, whether or not they get Dez Bryant involved in his team debut.

Saints win 42-28

Atlanta Falcons (4-4) at Cleveland Browns (2-6-1)

I liked the Browns when they were 2-2-1. They held an even point differential despite playing the Saints, Steelers, and Ravens. They held New Orleans to "only" 21 points which is pretty impressive looking back. Baker Mayfield was coming into the starting role looking great.

I've even picked in favor of the Browns, but since Week 5, they've lost four straight and seem destined for another abysmal season as far their record goes.

The Falcons are the opposite story: winning three straight after starting 1-4. Atlanta is poised to make a second half playoff run, in a division that may send as many as three teams. The Falcons can't overlook the Browns, with bigger NFC South matchups coming down the line, but they should be able to handle Cleveland.

Falcons win 27-13

New England Patriots (7-2) at Tennessee Titans (4-4)

For the record, I wasn't fazed at all when the Patriots started 1-2. They do this every year or every couple years, and they've never failed to bounce back. Six straight wins has the Patriots right there near the top of the NFL: behind only the one loss Chiefs, Saints, and Rams.

The Titans had a flowery start and some impressive wins but hadn't fallen off as of late: until their Monday Night road victory over the Dallas Cowboys. But the Patriots are leagues better than Dallas, so the Titans win streak stops at one.

Patriots win 38-17
Image result for jaguars colts

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-5) at Indianapolis Colts (3-5)

The Jaguars are in desperation mode. Even at 3-1, something felt off about the team that was barely able to beat the Giants. Four straight losses has everyone on watch and fingers pointed around. Blake Bortles was benched and reportedly has a short leash.

The Colts have won back-to-back games after a 1-5 start. It seems like there's a pattern of teams meeting at crossroads in their seasons. Even with two 3-5 teams, this is absolutely an important game. The winner will at least get the chance to challenge the red-hot Texans, while the loser will only be able to afford another loss if they still aspire to make the playoffs.

I don't pick based on bias, but I want to see the Jaguars win here. They were an exciting team last season, and actually almost beat the Patriots to go to the Super Bowl.

But whatever they had, they lost. The chemistry, energy, magic, is all gone. Andrew Luck is working on a comeback player of the year campaign, and getting the Colts to 4-5 helps his eventual case.

Colts win 20-15

Arizona Cardinals (2-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)

I'll save you and myself some time here: the Chiefs are 16.5 point favorites for a reason. Arizona has no chance in the hostile road environment.

Chiefs win 31-13

Buffalo Bills (2-7) at New York Jets (3-6)

The Jets had a chance to contend when they had a 3-4 record. But a couple losses later, and their season is on it's last legs. It's not that they had playoff aspirations this year, but the roster is talented enough to churn out at least six or seven wins.

Sam Darnold won't play, which mean veteran Josh McCown comes back in. I'd almost be worried he performs too well, creating a potential controversy over who should start. But this is Darnold's team and should remain that way. Regardless, the Jets beat up on the visiting Bills at MetLife Stadium. 

Jets win 34-17

Washington Redskins (5-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)

Through eight weeks, I'm still not sold on the Redskins as a playoff team. It's not a slight on Alex Smith, but when everything is clicking, Philadelphia should be the better team, and that's why I expect them to steal the NFC East.

The Redskins barely escaped the abysmal New York Giants. While the Buccanneers have been inconsistent as an understatement this season, they have a football team that can beat anyone. I think the Redskins slip up in Tampa Bay, creating pressure on Washington to stay in front of the NFC East pack. They do have one advantage: the Eagles and Cowboys play this week, so one will have to lose.

Buccaneers win 23-17

Los Angeles Chargers (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (1-7)

If I had to pick the roster of one of the 1 or 2 win football teams, it would either be the Raiders or the Giants. Oakland came in as one of my picks to make the playoffs, and even after the Khalil Mack trade, I didn't expect this.

Basically, I think the Raiders could give the Chargers a run for the money. But at the end of the day, Los Angeles improves to 7-2 and stays right with the Chiefs and Patriots. 

Chargers win 27-20

Miami Dolphins (5-4) at Green Bay Packers (3-4-1)

The Packers have blundered away a couple games this season, and face a huge uphill battle if they want to make the NFC playoffs. But they're undefeated at home (3-0-1) while Miami has been poor on the road (1-3). The warm weather Dolphins will be greeted by a 35 degree game-time temperature. I think Aaron Rodgers gets it done at home, essentially evening the Packers record as well as the Dolphins.

Packers win 24-16

Seattle Seahawks (4-4) at Los Angeles Rams (8-1)

The Seahawks can play their NFC West brethren tough. The LA Rams might be overthinking things after their first loss of the season, but in reality they just lost a tough fight to an incredibly talented Saints team. As long as the Rams offense doesn't miss a beat, Los Angeles should be fine. What's more worrisome is how the defense responds to allowing 45 points, but as long as Goff and Gurley put up 30, there should be no problems.

Rams win 33-23

Sunday Night

Dallas Cowboys (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)

These games are always hard to peg, and always on Sunday Nights. The Eagles and Cowboys meet in primetime, with both teams looking up to Washington. With a win, the Eagles would be in good position to challenge the Redskins in the season's second half. For Dallas, a loss would likely only give them enough breathing room to endure one more loss the rest of the season.

It's a pretty desperate situation for both teams, and hopefully the quality of play reflects that. Picking the game, I like the Eagles offense, defense, and quarterback more than that of Dallas, so the pick isn't too hard. Wentz gets it done as the Eagles conquest to defend their Super Bowl title continues.

Eagles win 21-13

Monday Night

New York Giants (1-7) at San Francisco 49ers (2-7)

Bravo to the NFL executives that scheduled this game in the un-flexable, Monday Night time slot. In the spring, they probably saw Saquon Barkley and the Giants in playoff position, along with Jimmy G's Niners squad.

Instead, two teams with a combined 3-14 record duke it out to determine who will end up with a better draft pick in 2019. From a football standpoint, either team could win. And the Giants offense has some powers that have shown flashes. For the second time this season, the Giants walk off the field with a win.

Giants win 24-17

More

Teams on bye:
  • Denver Broncos (3-6, 3rd AFC West)
  • Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1, 2nd NFC North)
  • Baltimore Ravens (4-5, 3rd AFC North)
  • Houston Texans (6-3, 1st AFC South)
NFL Week 1 Picks

Header photo: USA Today
Bears-Lions photo: Joe Robbins/Getty Images
Jaguars-Colts: Logan Bowles/Getty Images


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