A new Finals matchup, an exciting MVP race, fresh rookies, and stars on new teams give plenty of reasons to watch the NBA regular season.
Here are my predictions for the 16 playoff teams, major awards, and NBA Finals outcome.
Eastern Conference Playoff Teams
- Boston Celtics
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Toronto Raptors
- Indiana Pacers
- Miami Heat
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Detroit Pistons
- Washington Wizards
Outside Looking In: Cleveland Cavaliers, Charlotte Hornets, New York Knicks, Atlanta Hawks
LeBron James is finally out of the Eastern Conference after 15 years. The teams must be rejoicing, and the East is totally up for grabs this year for once right?
Despite LeBron's departure, there's no questioning who the Eastern Conference favorites are: the Boston Celtics. After an injury-depleted team took a 3-2 lead on the Cavaliers in May, it seemed Boston may have already crossed over the hump. While Cleveland prevailed, the Celtics loss didn't feel as bleak with a promising future and the return of Gordon Hayward on the horizon.
Barring another major injury, I expect the Celtics to run away with the conference. Right below them, with a fighting chance to defeat them, are the Philadelphia 76ers and Toronto Raptors. Philly's young team was dispatched by Boston in five games in the playoffs, but the 76ers are also a team that is rising from year to year. The Raptors swapped Demar Derozan for Kawhi Leonard, so while Toronto was already in the top half of the playoff seeds, they should be an even stronger team now.
The Indiana Pacers are also intriguing, with Victor Oladipo quietly becoming a star and a solid offseason of acquisitions. At their best, I could see Indiana with a Top 3 seed and an Eastern Conference Finals appearance.
The Miami Heat (Dywane Wade's final season), Milwaukee Bucks (can Giannis elevate from superstar to a franchise cornerstone?), Detroit Pistons (first full season with Blake Griffin) and Washington Wizards (always in the picture but haven't impressed in years) round out the bottom half of the East's playoff teams.
I wanted to put the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 8th spot, but Washington is a little deeper and more well-rounded.
Western Conference Playoff Teams
- Golden State Warriors
- Houston Rockets
- Utah Jazz
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Portland Trailblazers
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- New Orleans Pelicans
- San Antonio Spurs
Outside Looking In: Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets
The Western Conference had a wild finish in the 2017-18 season, with the 3rd seeded Portland Trailblazers and the 9th-finishing Denver Nuggets separated by just three games. Every game mattered in the West, and this year will be no different with the arrival of LeBron James in the conference.
The Lakers won 35 games last season, and I think with their core being so young, another year might realistically push them to 40 wins. Adding LeBron James turns LA up a whole notch, to the 50-win, Top-4 Playoff Seed territory. Though I don't think the season will be easy by any means, James will show his addition makes any team a contender.
I still put them below the Utah Jazz, as their young players also have a year to improve and some chemistry under their belt. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert will be fun to watch this season. Of course, the Warriors lead the pack, even if they hold back a little in the regular season. I still see them with a slightly better record than the Houston Rockets. Especially if it comes down to just a few games, Golden State may be incentivized by home-court advantage.
The Trailblazers may finish with a similar record to that of last year, but the fierce competition sees them slide down a few spots. The Timberwolves and Pelicans build on last year's success, even with questions surrounding both teams.
The final spot was down to the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder. The Spurs won 47 games and were seeded 7th last year, already without the services of Kawhi Leonard. So turning his roster spot into Demar Derozan makes the Spurs a solid contender to make the playoffs yet again. The Thunder will be formidable all season, and can beat anyone on their best day. But in the crowded West, Paul George and Russell Westbrook see themselves fall just short, which will be sure to stir some organizational moves.
The Lakers won 35 games last season, and I think with their core being so young, another year might realistically push them to 40 wins. Adding LeBron James turns LA up a whole notch, to the 50-win, Top-4 Playoff Seed territory. Though I don't think the season will be easy by any means, James will show his addition makes any team a contender.
I still put them below the Utah Jazz, as their young players also have a year to improve and some chemistry under their belt. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert will be fun to watch this season. Of course, the Warriors lead the pack, even if they hold back a little in the regular season. I still see them with a slightly better record than the Houston Rockets. Especially if it comes down to just a few games, Golden State may be incentivized by home-court advantage.
The Trailblazers may finish with a similar record to that of last year, but the fierce competition sees them slide down a few spots. The Timberwolves and Pelicans build on last year's success, even with questions surrounding both teams.
The final spot was down to the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder. The Spurs won 47 games and were seeded 7th last year, already without the services of Kawhi Leonard. So turning his roster spot into Demar Derozan makes the Spurs a solid contender to make the playoffs yet again. The Thunder will be formidable all season, and can beat anyone on their best day. But in the crowded West, Paul George and Russell Westbrook see themselves fall just short, which will be sure to stir some organizational moves.
Awards Predictions
Rookie of the Year
Contenders include:
- Deandre Ayton, Phoenix Suns
- Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
- Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
- Colin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers
- Marvin Bagley, Sacramento Kings
Prediction: In a league where the center position is a dying brand, Deandre Ayton will be a breathe of fresh air. He also has one of the best situations to shift his team's win total. Trae Young and Marvin Bagley may bring some flashy offense, but Ayton's total package will garner ROY honors.
Coach of the Year
It's crazy that Brad Stevens hasn't won coach of the year yet. Though another coach could upset him by doing more with a less talented roster, Stevens is the de facto favorite as the Celtics are expected to rip through the East with their deep roster, and Stevens at the helm.
MVP
Contenders include:
- James Harden, Houston Rockets: The reigning MVP could make it back-to-back with another 30 PPG, 65 win season. Or will voters pick a different story?
- Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans: Davis looks to pick up from his dominance last year, proving he can carry the team without another star. If the Pelicans finish well in the West, the nod could go AD.
- LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers: On paper, James could have a similar season to his last one with the Cavaliers, but still blow away the pack. Elevating the Lakers to 50 or more wins may be enough to get the King back on top, and the change of scenery doesn't hurt either.
- Kevin Durant/Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors: Being on the same team basically eliminates these Top 5 players from winning the award. They'll still end up with MVP votes, but having each other makes the other inherently less valuable.
- Kawhi Leonard, Toronto Raptors: The Raptors have been a regular season Eastern Conference powerhouse for a couple seasons. But if Leonard can elevate them to new, exciting heights on the floor, both offensively and defensively, he may be able to steal MVP.
Prediction: LeBron James wins his 5th MVP award, on his 3rd different team. A near triple double statline, 50 or more wins and a Top 4 playoff seed proves the King's worth in LA.
Finals Prediction
Golden State Warriors over Boston Celtics
This pick shouldn't be shocking at all, and while it feels boring to make, it seems very likely to play out. If anything, I actually consider the Celtics more of a lock than the Warriors. As long as the Rockets remain healthy, I don't see why they can't defeat Golden State in a playoff series, as they nearly did last year. Even the Lakers, in a perfect scenario, could pose a threat to the Warriors in the playoffs.
In the East, the Celtics will have to fend off the 76ers and the Raptors. Boston has Philadelphia's number at the moment, and is a more well-rounded team. Toronto is a wildcard, with a high ceiling if Kawhi Leonard comes back strong. But all signs lead to the Celtics taking the Eastern Conference now that LeBron James is out of the way.
But the Celtics will face the fate of three of the last four Eastern Conference champions: a loss to the Warriors. Boston could probably make it a series, but I think the Warriors would win in five or six games.
Other potential Finals matchups include:
- Celtics-Rockets: The best pure basketball series we could probably get. Rockets win in 7.
- 76ers-Warriors: Worried Golden State would embarass the 76ers here. Warriors in 4.
- 76ers-Rockets: Not as bad, but still a mismatch. Rockets in 5
- Celtics-Lakers: The darkhorse, and what an incredible matchup it would be. Reaching the Finals would mean the Lakers have already reached new peaks. We don't know how that would look so I would call this theoretical matchup a toss-up.
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Header photo courtesy of Sports Illustrated
Celtics-76ers photo courtesy of NBA.com/TNT
Warriors-Rockets photo courtesy of Erza Shaw, Getty Images
Warriors-Celtics photo courtesy of SlamOnline.com
Warriors-Celtics photo courtesy of SlamOnline.com
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