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How Big and Where Will Eric Hosmer's Mega Contract Be?

Coming off a career year in 2017, 28-year-old first baseman Eric Hosmer is being patient in the free agent market, waiting to select the contract that will affect the next decade of his life. Hosmer reportedly has two major options: stay with the Kansas City Royals or sign with the San Deigo Padres?

Waiting out the market seemed to work for pitcher Yu Darvish, who signed a 6-year, $126 million contract with the Chicago Cubs. Hosmer already has two larger offers on the table: a 7-year, $140 million offer from the Padres and a 7-year, $147 million contract to stay with the Royals. Both offers would be in the Top 35-richest contracts ever, but Hosmer reportedly wants more, specifically more years. 
According to USA Today, Hosmer prefers an eight or nine year deal from either team. In 2012, Prince Fielder signed a 9-year, $214 million deal with the Detroit Tigers. Fellow Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera inked a 9-year, $248 million contract that started in 2016. Hosmer is holding out for this life-changing financial security.
Hosmer made a cool $12 million in 2017, but has only amassed $30 million in career earnings through six years of MLB service with the Royals. Even with the offers currently on the table, Hosmer will be making at least $20 million per year in his next contract. The extra year and $20-25 million could seem trivial, but establishing income for the foreseeable future could be a valuable asset for the young slugger.

In 2017, appearing in all 162 games for the first time in his career, he hit .318 (career-high), 25 homeruns (T-career-high), 94 RBI, and 98 runs (T-career-high). The first baseman is in his prime and ready to cash in.

Hosmer has been consistently improving, especially over the last three years. In 2017, he earned his 4th Gold Glove and 1st Silver Slugger award.

But he still might not be dominating the league at the levels at the levels Fielder and Cabrera, or on the more extreme end, as Albert Pujols and Ginacarlo Stanton, have. So where will his final contract land?

Currently, the Padres are offering $20 million per year and the Royals are offering $21 million per year. So if the teams don't change their value but add more years:

  • The Padres would offer an 8-year, $160 million or 9-year, $180 million deal.
  • The Royals would offer an 8-year, $168 million or 9-year, $189 million deal.
The highest offer here, the $189 million one, would put Hosmer just outside the top ten biggest MLB contracts ever, tying Derek Jeter's 2001-2010 megadeal.

Unless the Padres beef up their annual value, Hosmer could stay with the only major league team he's ever called home. But what if the Padres offer more years than the Royals, at a slightly lower annual value? For example, of the potential deals listed above, what if the Royals final offer was 8-year, $168 million and the Padres were willing to go the full 9-year, $180 million?
In theory, the extra year could actually be more lucrative. At 36 years old, it may be hard to find a new deal worth $20 million per year, so taking the Padres offer in this scenario may set Hosmer up better in the late 2020's. 

Or on the other hand, maybe Hosmer values his time in Kansas City and wants to continue building his legacy there. He won't have to give them a "hometown discount," because they're already the top bidder. 

It's halfway through February, pitchers and catchers report soon and spring training will be underway after that. Hosmer will choose a team soon, shaping his career and likely registering a new entrant in the biggest baseball contracts of all-time.

Prediction: Signs with Royals for 8-Years, $170 million

(Would be 20th-largest contract of all-time)




By Billy Sakmann
Header photo courtesy of (Peter Aiken/USA Today Sports)

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