The 2018 NFL Playoffs kicked off in a huge way on Wildcard Weekend, with upsets, an 18 point comeback, and of course, some officiating calls that sparked debate by armchair referees.
The divisional round could be just as fun if not more exciting, with eight teams set for action this weekend.
Last week I went 2-2 in my picks, incorrectly choosing the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams. The Tennessee Titans win was improbable so I don't feel bad about picking that wrong, but I almost picked the Atlanta Falcons and wish I did. With that being said, why am I going to pick against the Falcons AGAIN this week?
Read ahead to find out my picks for all four games.
Atlanta Falcons (11-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
Time: Saturday, January 13th at 4:35 PM ET
TV: NBC
Line: Atlanta Falcons (-3)
For the first time in modern NFL playoff history, a conference's top seed will open their first game as a home underdog. Despite having tied for the NFL's best record, the Philadelphia Eagles are without MVP candidate Carson Wentz, tarnishing their playoff odds.
Oddsmakers aren't being too bold, three points is a reasonable spread with Atlanta's capable offense and underrated defense. But fans seem to think the Eagles will be playing 10-on-11, not giving Philadelphia even the slightest shot with Nick Foles at quarterback.
When Wentz first tore his ACL, I wrote that the Eagles took a blow but may not be out of it. Then, earlier this week I penned a piece wondering if the "underdog" Eagles could advance to the NFC Championship.
So should it be any surprise that I'm still hesitant to count the Eagles out? Specifically, Carson Wentz was never a running back or defensive player. These pieces are still in place for the Eagles. It takes a lot of talent all over the field to win 13 games, and even without their start quarterback, the Eagles are a gritty team, hungry for a playoff victory.
The Falcons do come in with a little more momentum, and are easily more experienced with most of the team playing in the Super Bowl last February.
But the Eagles come in with a 3rd-ranked rushing offense and a 4th-ranked scoring defense. These are no small feats, and Philadelphia will look to translate these strengths to playoff wins.
If Foles can limit turnovers and make just one or two special plays, the Eagles could easily be in business against the Falcons. Even if he plays just an average games, I think Philadelphia will be able to stay in the game right until the end.
Eagles 23 - Falcons 18
Tennessee Titans (10-7) at New England Patriots (13-3)
Time: Saturday, January 13th, 8:15 PM
TV: CBS
Line: New England Patriots (-13.5)
The Tennessee Titans were the biggest underdog last week, but went into Arrowhead Stadium and came out with a win, even after going down 21-3. Can lightning strike twice, with a win over Tom Brady and the New England Patriots?
I wouldn't say the Titans have no chance in this game. I'll say what all the analysts have been saying all week: If Derrick Henry can control the ball on the ground and keep it out of Brady's hands, there is a chance.
But even then, Tennessee would have to score on most of their possessions while limiting the Patriots to punts and turnovers.
That isn't going to happen.
If the Patriots go up 14-0 or 17-3 early, it'll be all but over. Belichick and Brady aren't going to squander an 18 point lead like the Chiefs did, and even a 10 point lead can feel insurmountable against New England.
If the Titans score early and often, it could be a more exciting game. But unless they enter the 4th quarter with a lead, I don't think they'll win the game.
Brady won't suffer an opening round exit, beating the Titans to advance to yet another AFC Championship game. The more interesting part may be to see if the Titans can cover the large spread, which I think they will.
Patriots 31 - Titans 20
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)
Time: Sunday, January 14th at 1:05 PM
TV: CBS
Line: Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)
The Pittsburgh Steelers look to advance to the AFC Championship to avenge their controversial regular season loss to the Patriots.
But before that, they'll need to also exact revenge on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who pummeled them 30-9 at Heinz Field, a loss so bad Ben Roethlisberger openly pondered retirement saying "maybe I just don't have it anymore."
The Jaguars picked Big Ben off five times in their stunning victory, as the dominating defense didn't allow Pittsburgh to reach the endzone.
Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville offense can be hit or miss at times, but the defense, affectionately dubbed "Sacksonville," travels well and will look to succeed again in Pittsburgh. The Jaguars defense has held two of their last four opponents to under 10 points and three of them to 15 or less.
The Jaguars could be in for another defensive slugfest, as they beat the Buffalo Bills 10-3 last week. The only problem is that the Steelers possess a much better offense.
The Steelers finished 3rd in total offense and 7th in scoring defense: a balanced combination that allowed them to tie for the NFL's best record. After missing the last weeks of the regular season, Antonio Brown is expected to be a full-go for Sunday's game.
Even with the Jaguars elite defense, I would expect the experienced Steelers to drop at least 17 points on Jacksonville. So the deciding factor will ultimately be: can Bortles and the Jaguars score?
In the Jaguars initial 30-9 win, Bortles still only had 94 yards (with an interception and no touchdowns) on 8-14 passing. Leonard Fournette was the offensive difference maker in the game, amassing 181 yards and 2 touchdowns on 28 carries.
Then last week, in the Jaguars low-scoring win, Bortles was only 12-23 for 87 yards. He had more yards on the ground, 88, but it's improbable he could duplicate such ground success against the Steelers.
The Jaguars can continue their Cinderella run if their offense explodes for some points or their defense dominates once again. Either way is possible, but overall, the Steelers are the better team and will win if they minimize mistakes.
Steelers 20 - Jaguars 13
New Orleans Saints (12-5) at Minnesota Vikings (13-3)
Time: Sunday, January 14th at 4:40 PM
TV: FOX
Line: Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
It's been nearly a decade since these two teams met in the playoffs. Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings were poised to head to the Super Bowl against Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts (a matchup I'm still upset we never saw) before Favre threw a crippling interception.
Now in 2018, two constants remain: Drew Brees and Sean Payton. The duo has enjoyed ups and downs over the years, but have turned the team into something special this year.
On paper, this is the most even game of the week and should lead to some exciting results.
Since Week 5, the Vikings are an incredible 11-1, dropping just a single, one possession game to the Panthers. With that being said, it's hard to bet against them. They defeated the Saints 29-19 in the regular season, but that was all the way back in Week 1.
You can't talk about this matchup with recognizing how great Case Keenum has been for the Vikings this season. He completed 67.6% of his passes, well above league average, threw 22 TD to just 7 interceptions, and only lost one game that he started.
Of course, he's supported by one of the NFL's best defenses. Scratch that, the Vikings defense was the BEST in the league at limiting opponents scoring, a mere 15.8 points per game. Over the final three weeks of the season, Minnesota allowed only a total of 17 points.
But the Saints offense will play better than those of the Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears. Expect heavy doses of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara as the Saints look to establish a reliable running attack. If the rushing game can't get going, Brees will have to get the offense going himself.
Still not a bad proposition. In his 17th season, Brees had a career high 72% completion rate. Between him and Keenum, there won't be a lot of passes hitting the ground.
At first, I was leaning towards picking the Saints. They have a slight offensive edge (4th in scoring offense, with the Vikings 10th) but the gap is more substantial on the defensive side of the ball. While the Saints finished just inside the top ten in scoring defense, the Vikings finished 1st with a full five points less allowed per game.
Homefield advantage also plays to the Vikings favor. Minnesota went 7-1 at home this season, and looks to play in Super Bowl LII on their home turf. The Saints are also a strong home team, but finished just 4-4 on the road in the regular season.
If this game was in New Orleans, it would be close to a straight toss-up. But the Vikings homefield advantage, paired with their top defense, may be too much for the Saints to overcome.
Vikings 24 - Saints 17
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