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NFL Conference Championships Preview and Predictions


Nearly every game of the 2018 NFL Playoffs has been close, and many have featured epic finishes. Hopefully this streak continues into championship weekend, as the final four teams square off for a chance to play in Super Bowl LII.

Will the Minnesota Vikings become the first team to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium? Or will the Philadelphia Eagles prove the doubters wrong once again behind Nick Foles?



As Tom Brady and the New England Patriots play in their 7th-straight AFC Championship game, will they reach back-to-back Super Bowls? Or will Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars continue their Cinderella run all the way to the big game?

So far in the playoffs, I'm 5-3 picking games, so I'll look to be 7-3 after this weekend.

There's plenty of storylines and drama, but only four potential Super Bowl matchups. Which two teams will meet on February 4th? Read on for my picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars (12-6) at New England Patriots (14-3)

Time: Sunday, January 21 at 3:05 PM
TV: CBS
Line: New England Patriots (-9.0)

Tom Brady is to AFC Championships as LeBron James is to NBA Finals: for the last 7 years they've both made consecutive appearances. The New England Patriots are in a familiar place against a not-so familiar opponent in the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Patriots were likely expecting the Pittsburgh Steelers, but after an impressive 45-42 win, Jacksonville looks to push even further, to the big game.

Like any football game, the AFC Championship will be determined by how the offenses and defenses match up. But the most interesting part of this matchup could be how the Jaguars defense matches up with the Patriots offense. New England uses a lot of quick passes to beat the blitz and rack up yards. But will they be so successful doing so against the speedy, talented Jaguars defense?

After holding the Buffalo Bills to three points in the first round of the playoffs, the Jaguars defense did give up 42 wins in Pittsburgh despite the win, including 21 points in the fourth quarter. The Steelers frantically tried to stay in the game, relying on Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell to get some big chunks of yardage.

Is the Patriots offense good enough to do the same? If the Patriots get the lead early, they're very conditioned to be able to hold on to it. But if the Jaguars go up big like they did on the Steelers? Beside the obvious target of Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots don't have the consistent threats like Bell and Brown.

On the other side of the ball, we have Blake Bortles, Leonard Fournette and the Jaguars offense going up against New England's 5th-ranked defense in points per game. Their 18.5 points per game allowed is impressive, but the number balloons to a more average 20.7 points per game against playoff teams in the regular season. Take out 3-point and 16-point defensive performances against the Buffalo Bills, and the Patriots defense is even more suspectable to playoff offenses.

Point being, while the Patriots defense is good, it may be a tad overrated.

The fate of the game really lies on the shoulders, arms, and legs of Blake Bortles, who has a better career playoff winning percentage than Brady! (Shout out to Blake Bortles Facts, one of my favorite Twitter accounts.)

Bortles will have to make some throws, not just completed passes, but impressive THROWS, for the Jaguars offense to make some noise. The duo of Fournette and T.J. Yeldon found success against Pittsburgh's usually stout run defense, could they continue churning out yards in New England?

The Patriots have a lot of advantages. Their quarterback. Rob Gronkowski. Homefield advantage. Bill Belichick. But the Jaguars don't need too many breaks to compete in this game: and maybe even win.

Let's put it this way: I would feel worse if I picked the Patriots and the Jaguars won, then if I picked the Jaguars and the Patriots won. New England has a tendency to blow out ill-prepared playoff teams (Marcus Mariota and the Titans, Tim Tebow and the Broncos), but this Jaguars team feels different and special.

And that's why I'm predicting...

Jaguars 23 - Patriots 20 

Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Time: Sunday, January 21
TV: FOX
Line: Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)

For the second straight week, the Philadelphia Eagles are home underdogs. But at least this time the opponent is clearly of their caliber: the Eagles and Minnesota Vikings had identical 13-3 records in the regular season.

Did anyone think before the season started, we'd be seeing Nick Foles and Case Keenum duke it out for a trip to Super Bowl LII? Of course not, but that's why football is so great. Neither team is riding the quarterback they intended to, but one thing has remained consistent: their defenses.

The Eagles ranked 4th in points allowed per game, steamrolling to a 13-2 record before an odd 6-0 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, where their defense was still obviously elite. The Vikings rode an even stronger defense, allowing an NFL-low 15.8 points per game.

Offensively, the Eagles ranked third, though most of their damage was done with Carson Wentz at quarterback. Still, their speedy receivers and backfield tandem of LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi raise the offense's potential. Nick Foles was extremely efficient, 23-30 passing, in the Eagles win over the Atlanta Falcons. He made some ugly throws still, but completed his most important task: taking care of the ball.

Last week, the Vikings dominated the New Orleans Saints in the first half: so their 17-0 halftime lead seemed small. They even allowed the Saints to come back late, before the already classic Hail Mary to Stefon Diggs won the game for them.

The Vikings defense will likely shut down the Eagles offense early as well. So the deciding factor of this game will be if the Eagles can figure out Minnesota's defense in the second half and mount a similar comeback to the Saints.

The only problem is, while talented, the Foles-led offense won't have the firepower and efficiency of Brees second half performance last week. I still expect the Eagles to make it interesting and neither result would surprise me, but the Vikings superior defense, something few teams can say against the Eagles, will be the difference in Minnesota's win. The Vikings will be the first team in NFL history to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium ever with a win.

Vikings 24 - Eagles 17

This sets up Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars against Case Keenum and the Minnesota Vikings, in their home stadium, as the Super Bowl LII matchup. 

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