The 2018 NFL playoffs kick off this weekend with a different feel than recent years. Gone are the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco and Russell Wilson, and teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, and Tennessee Titans qualified for the first time in years.
Of course, familiar faces like the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers also made the postseason, looking to block the paths of any Cinderella runs in the AFC.
The first weekend of NFL games in 2018 is loaded with storylines, so let's dive right in to each of the four games.
Tennessee Titans (9-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
Game Time: Saturday, January 6th, 4:20 PM ET / 1:20 PM PT
TV: ESPN
Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
If these two teams met in the beginning of the 2018 season, it would have been a much more exciting affair. Both offenses were thriving, as the Kansas City Chiefs dropped 24 or more points in each game of their 5-0 start, tallying 42 points twice. The Chiefs followed this with a 1-6 stretch before winning their final four games of the season. Can this streaky team ride their most recent hot streak into January?
The Tennessee Titans came out of Week 3 on impressive back-to-back wins, dropping 37 on the Jacksonville Jaguars and 33 on the Seattle Seahawks en route to an AFC South lead they would hold for much of the season. In the middle of the season, the Titans enjoyed a 6-1 stretch, but none of the teams they beat made the playoffs this season. This included matchups with the Cleveland Browns (an odd 12-9 win for Tennessee), two games against the Indianapolis Colts, and a win over the DeShaun Watson-less Houston Texans. They lost three of their final four games, finishing with a season sweep over the Jaguars.
The Chiefs have a clear homefield advantage at Arrowhead Stadium, even they haven't been able to seal the deal in Kansas City in recent playoff games. They went 6-2 at home this season, with Titans finishing 3-5 on the road.
A more concerning statistic? The Titans actually played the 2nd-softest schedule in the NFL, and still finished with a negative point differential (-22). For comparison, the Jaguars, who played a similar schedule, finished +149. The Chiefs finished +76 in the category.
Marcus Mariota will be playing in his first playoff game, against Alex Smith, a more seasoned postseason quarterback.
All these little factors favoring the Chiefs add up, as they come into the playoffs a more established presence, despite their midseason meltdown. The Titans on the other hand, come in with little experience or consistency necessary to thrive in January.
It would be exciting to see the Titans come into Kansas City strong and come out with a win. But the Chiefs defense, run game, and quarterback are all solid and consistent at home, and it will lead them to a victory.
If the Titans play a near-perfect offensive game, they actually might have a higher ceiling than the Chiefs. But if each team plays according to recent trends, the Chiefs should be able to advance to the second round of the playoffs.
Chiefs 23 - Titans 16
Atlanta Falcons (10-6) at Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
Game Time: Saturday, January 6th, 8:15 PM ET / 5:15 PM PT
TV: NBC
Line: Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams took the NFL by storm this season, finishing 1st in the NFL in points per game (29.8) en route to their surprising NFC West crown. Goff had am impressive season, with 3,804 passing yards and 28 touchdowns to only 7 interceptions. He was aided by running back Todd Gurley, who amassed 1,305 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground.
In a year, the Atlanta Falcons have gone from NFC champions, near Super Bowl champions, to the third-best team in the NFC South. But perhaps they're not getting enough credit heading into the postseason? The team still has the major pieces necessary to return to the big game.
The Falcons started at an even 3-3. Aftewards they finished out the season on a 7-3 stretch, playing a lot of tough opponents. The three losses came against the New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, and Minnesota Vikings, all teams who finished with better records than the Falcons. Atlanta also beat the Saints and Panthers once each, with additional wins over the playoff-hungry Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys.
Basically, the Falcons can beat most teams on any given day, it's just a matter of execution. Atlanta finished in the middle of the pack in points per game (22.1) but finished 8th in scoring defense (19.7). The Rams defense wasn't too far behind, ranking 12th with 20.6 points per game allowed.
Unfortunately, the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum hasn't been too kind to the Rams: they only went 4-4 at home. If they can advance, they'd love to take their 7-1 road record to Philadelphia or Minnesota. The Falcons were unaffected by location this season, with identical 5-3 records on the road and at home.
Just like the earlier Saturday matchup, this game features an established team with playoff pedigree, the Falcons, and a young team happy to be here, the Rams. But in this case, the young team is the better one.
With their Week 17 loss to the San Francisco 49ers aside, the Rams went 4-1 in the previous five weeks, defeating the Saints, Seahawks, and Titans, while dropping a narrow loss to the Eagles in the game Carson Wentz was lost for the season. In these five games, the Rams offense tallied 26, 32, 35, 42 and 27. They were able to do so in the environments of L.A, Seattle and Tennessee.
The Falcons aren't a bad team; again, on any given Sunday they could play with most if not all of the playoff teams. But overall, the Rams are just better this year, and their offense has been more trustworthy. Even if Atlanta can shut down Jared Goff in his playoff debut, they could be hard-pressed to stop Gurley as well.
Of course, the Falcons have their own balance of passing (8th in the NFL) and rushing (13th), but the Rams ability to turn yardage into points will be their key to victory on Saturday night.
Rams 27 - Falcons 20
Buffalo Bills (9-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
Game Time: Sunday, January 7th, 1:05 PM ET / 10:05 AM PT
TV: CBS
Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
The first two sets of wildcard weekend games featured a team familiar with January football facing a young one led by an up and coming quarterback. This game will have a completely different feel. Both the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars have been strangers to playoff football for quite some time, with the Bills qualifying this year for the first time since 1999.
This doesn't even feel like the best the Bills have been over the last few seasons, but there was one major difference for them this year: they closed out the season. They won four of their last six games, losing only to the New England Patriots, which also didn't come without controversy.
The Bills mustered two wins against playoff teams this season, defeating the Atlanta Falcons and Kansas City Chiefs. They were 2-4 overall against teams that made the playoffs, losing to the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers in addition to their AFC East rival Patriots.
Buffalo finished below average in both scoring (22nd: 18.9 points per game) and defense (18th: 22.4 points allowed per game). Tyrod Taylor, while often efficient, didn't light it up through the air, as the Bills finished 31st in passing yardage. Their 6th-ranked run game was their saving grace, with 126.1 rushing yards per game.
But that's where this gets tricky. Buffalo's run game, easily their biggest strength, is in doubt for Sunday with LeSean McCoy listed as day-to-day with an ankle injury. Without McCoy, it will be even harder for the Bills to get points on the board in Jacksonville.
The Jaguars come in wildcard weekend on a two-game losing streak, but won seven of eight before that. As good as Buffalo is on the ground, Jacksonville was the best in the league with 141.4 rushing yards per game. Leonard Fournette will look to do damage against Buffalo's defense, and Blake Bortles will have to pick up the slack when he can't.
As the matchup is currently constructed, Bortles shouldn't have to do anything too spectacular to advance the Jaguars to the next round. This isn't to say Bortles has to be a pure game manager (his 60.2% completion rate was the highest of his career) but if he can keep his passes relatively safe, the run game and defense should be able to take care of business.
The Jaguars also hold a strong 6-2 record at EverBank Field, while the Bills are 3-5 playing outside Orchard Park this season.
It would be great to see the Bills play on in their first playoff appearance of the century, but the Jaguars are the better football team. Couple that with McCoy's uncertainty and Buffalo's unbalanced offense, and the Jaguars have pretty good odds to win on Sunday.
Jaguars 30 - Bills 19
Carolina Panthers (11-5) at New Orleans Saints (11-5)
Game Time: Sunday, January 7th, 4:40 PM ET / 1:40 PM PT
TV: Fox
Line: New Orleans Saints (-6)
While the other three games all feature teams with similar records, only the last matchup of the weekend has teams with identical records facing off. The New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers both come at 11-5, with New Orleans taking the NFC South crown by virtue of a season sweep over Carolina.
We'll start there when looking at this game. Also unlike the other three games of the weekend, these teams met in the regular season twice as divisional opponents. The Saints won both games, and will look for a clean three game season sweep with a win in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
The two teams first met in Week 3 in Carolina. The Panthers were 2-0 after allowing only 6 points over two weeks to the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills. The Saints on the other hand, were 0-2, but in retrospect losses at the Minnesota Vikings and vs. the New England Patriots don't seem like terrible losses.
The Saints reversed their fortunes in this matchup, dropping 34 points on Carolina's defense. Drew Brees threw for 220 yards and 3 touchdowns to give the Panthers their first loss of the season. Cam Newton threw three interceptions, which really put the Panthers in a hole. Still, they came in to the fourth quarter with a chance, down 24-13, before the Saints scored 10 unanswered points to win 34-13.
Fast forward to their second meeting in Week 13. The Saints rattled off eight straight wins before dropping a tight one to the Los Angeles Rams the week prior. The Panthers were riding a four game winning streak where their offense compensated for their mediocre defense over the stretch.
New Orleans went up 28-14 in the third quarter on 20-yard TD run by Alvin Kamara, his second of the day and the Saints third rushing touchdown. They would ultimately win 31-21 behind balanced doses of Brees, Kamara, and Mark Ingram.
The Saints victories should bode well for their third meeting, as well as their home setting. In addition to their 7-1 mark in New Orleans this year, the Saints have won five straight playoff games at home. The Panthers have a slight historical trend as well though, as they've never lost a game in their three wild card appearances.
If the Panthers are to win on Sunday, they'll need to shut down a facet of New Orleans offense, preferably their incredible run game. The Saints had one of the most balanced attacks in the league, finishing 5th in both passing and rushing yards. This also translated to the 4th most points per game in the league (28.0).
The Panthers need to score early and often to down New Orleans, and again, be great in at least one phase of defense. If the Saints can both pass and rush with ease, it's going to be a long game for the Panthers defense.
The NFL has been a quarterback league for quite some time, so it's hardy bold to call Cam Newton the deciding factor for the Panthers. But he needs to be better, needs to do something special to give the Panthers a chance to win.
Otherwise, expect a couple touchdown passes from Brees, a couple runs from Ingram and Kamara, and maybe even a few big defensive plays by New Orleans defense. Which ever team wins this matchup will have a pretty decent chance in the second round, but right now it's hard to bet that won't be the Saints.
Saints 34 - Panthers 23
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