In Week 3, my rough early season continued as I went 7-9. I had some good picks, including the Seahawks, Bears, Chiefs, and Ravens, but stumbled on some picks, incorrectly predicting the Texans over Giants, Jets over Browns, and Raiders over Dolphins.
I'll try to fare better in Week 4, and there's definitely a few toss-ups that are even more confusing as we don't know who these teams really are yet. Specifically, Vikings-Rams, Buccaneers-Bears, Steelers-Ravens, and Lions-Cowboys will tell us a lot about the true identity of those teams involved.
You can read all my Week 3 picks here if you'd like. And without further ado, onward to Week 4!
Thursday Night
Minnesota Vikings (1-1-1) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0)
In the early season, this is a huge game for the overall picture in the NFC. Interestingly, it's unlikely a head-to-head win would be used as a tiebreaker in the final standings, by virtue of Minnesota's tie. But the getting to 4-0 and pushing the Vikings to 1-2-1 would put them in the driver's seat for the top seed in the NFC.
Many see the Rams as a slam dunk pick here, coming off three great offensive weeks while the Vikings embarrassed themselves against the Bills. But in the previous two games, the Vikings offense put up 24 and 29 points. The Rams are averaging a cool 34 points per game, so if the Vikings bounce back to shape on offense, we could be in for a Thursday Night Shootout.
I still take the Rams here, but I expect a competitive game.
Rams win 31-21
Sunday
Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
The Bengals opened the season with back-to-back 34-23 wins before a 31-21 loss to the Carolina Panthers. Their offense has been a consistent force through three weeks. On the other hand, Atlanta's offense has gotten better by the week: 12 points against the Eagles, 31 against the Panthers, and 37 against the Saints.
Matt Ryan and the Falcons defend their home turf well, and the end result will be two 2-2 teams, both in solid positions through four weeks.
Falcons win 34-24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at Chicago Bears (2-1)
Which 2-1 team is as good as their record tells? This will be a big test for both teams; whether its Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston at QB for Tampa Bay.
The Bears had a nice primetime win against the Seahawks, but the Buccaneers beat the Saints in a shootout, defeated the Eagles for their first loss since the Super Bowl, and narrowly lost to the Steelers despite three picks.
Basically, I like Tampa Bay's early resume more, and while the Bears have made strides this season they don't win at home here.
Buccaneers win 27-13
Detroit Lions (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (1-2)
Another game with identities on the line. If the Cowboys are a playoff team, they'll take advantage of the Lions and get a solid victory at home to get back on track. Or maybe they're one of the worst teams in the NFL, and Detroit manhandles them in Jerry World.
The Lions are coming off a big win against the Patriots, so with the monkey off their back, I think they come into Dallas and get it done. Dak Prescott continues to pass for under 200 yards.
Lions win 24-10
Buffalo Bills (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-1-1)
The Buffalo Bills were 16 point underdogs against the Vikings: then blew them out. The Packers have a negative 13 point differential, with a 1 point win, tie, and 14 point loss.
But this week, Aaron Rodgers and company get back on track against a relatively weaker opponent. The Bills can't keep the magic going in Green Bay.
Packers win 27-16
Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at Tennessee Titans (2-1)
The Titans are off to a moderately unexpected 2-1 start, and host the 2-1 Eagles. Carson Wentz is back for the second straight week, and though the Titans defense held strong last week, their offense continues to find only mild success.
Eagles win 17-10
Houston Texans (0-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
Fun fact: For three straight weeks, the Texans gave their opponent their first win of the season. The Colts are the first team with a win that Houston will play. Andrew Luck and the Colts played a close game with the Eagles, and are favored by a point at home. But I see DeShaun Watson and J.J. Watt getting their own first win this week.
Texans win 24-21
Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New England Patriots (1-2)
Yes, the Dolphins are off to an awesome 3-0 start and the Patriots haven't looked like themselves through a rough 1-2 start. But is it really a surprise the Patriots are still favored by nearly a touchdown (6.5 points) at home against their divisional rival?
Tom Brady owns Miami, and at home, New England should be able to get back to business. Could Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins make it interesting? Maybe, but I don't see them winning.
Patriots win 17-10
New York Jets (1-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)
The Jaguars slipped up against the Titans last week, but get back on track against a struggling Sam Darnold. Jacksonville's defense will be too tough to crack for the rookie QB.
Jaguars win 20-9
Cleveland Browns (1-1-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-3)
The Raiders were one of my up and coming teams in the AFC, but this year has been a flat-out disappointment. Baker Mayfield comes in and wins his first NFL start: boosting the Browns above .500 and the Raiders to 0-4.
Browns win 24-13
Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (0-3)
The Seahawks claw back from an 0-2 start with a second straight road win. Rookie Josh Rosen isn't ready for Seattle's defense in his first NFL start, and I fear it could even get ugly.
Seahawks win 31-6
New Orleans Saints (2-1) at New York Giants (1-2)
The Saints are giving up 30-40 points per game; but also scoring just as many. The formula has earned them a 2-1 record so far. Eli Manning and the Giants may be able to expose New Orleans defense, but can they win in a shootout? New York has home-field advantage but I'll take Drew Brees and company on the road in a high scoring affair.
Saints win 38-27
San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-2)
With Jimmy G down for the season and Richard Sherman nursing a minor injury, the 49ers season is fading quick. C.J.. Beathard will start at quarterback, and that's just something you never want to hear. Veteran Philip Rivers takes advantage of the road team's poor situation to climb to 2-2.
Chargers win 20-10
Sunday Night
Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1-1)
Joe Flacco vs. Ben Roethlisberger: Round 21. The two quarterbacks are an even 10-10 in regular season play, with a slight favor towards the home team over the years. But Pittsburgh is very out of whack this year, with off the field drama and on the field woes. The Steelers were expected to be right up there in the playoff picture, but falling to last in the AFC North could serve as their wakeup call.
Ravens win 24-23
Monday Night
Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Denver Broncos (2-1)
The Broncos return home, where Case Keenum resumes his 2-0 record in Denver. The Chiefs are bound to hit the wall soon, but I don't think this will be the week. Playing in an environment similar to Kansas City (but with a lot more elevation,) Patrick Mahommes continues his lightning fast start to the season and gets the Chiefs to 4-0 on National TV, making them even more well known.
Chiefs win 31-20
More
The Panthers (2-1) and Redskins (2-1) are on Bye in Week 4
Header photo courtesy of Getty Images
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