The
Sweet Smell of Baseball…For Some
by Sean Kingsepp
Contributing Writer
Despite much of the United States still worrying
about whether snow will be coming in the next few weeks, pitchers and catchers
have arrived for all 30 teams at their respective camps in Arizona or Florida.
By this time, most teams should be set, give or take the last few roster spots,
right?
Arguably the biggest story of the offseason
has been the “cold stove” of free agency, with many big name free agents either
signing very late, or not at all. Although a few high profile free agents have
signed in the past two weeks, most notably Todd Frazier, Eric Hosmer, and Yu
Darvish. Darvish was considered by multiple experts as the cream of this years’
pitching crop. Darvish signed a 6-year, $126 million deal with the Chicago Cubs
earlier this week, signing just before pitchers reported to camp. Hosmer finally got a deal after holding out for an 8-year contract and getting one from the
San Diego Padres. Despite these recent signings, the available free agent class
is riddled with former all-stars and talent that could help any contending
team.
If we were to create a team of free agents,
not a 25-man squad, but a general 10-man team with a starting pitcher, closer,
and the starting nine, that team would be projected to be quite a good team for
the 2018 season. Using the Baseball Prospectus statistic Wins Above Replacement
Player (WARP) as a general indicator of performance for the upcoming season,
the free agent team would compile a WARP of 16.1, sitting them right around the
wild card teams of this past season (Diamondbacks at 17.2, Rockies at 11, Twins
at 17, and Yankees at 22.1). While clearly not a World Series contender, the
free agent team has plenty of talent and the individual pieces could easily be
used to add a few WARP to these contending teams in the place of roster holes
that they may have. And yes, I understand that WARP is not an end all, be all
statistic, but for simplicity’s sake, that’s what I’ll use for projections. In this Google Doc, I compare the 2017 top free agents to major league rosters. Next year's 2018 class ranks just under the World Series champion Houston Astros, and above many teams, including playoff teams.
2018 Top Free Agents
This leads to the big question: Why? Why
are so many high profile free agents still available? My belief is that is one
of three likely causes: the crop of free agents after this upcoming season hasbetter players for every single position;
the lower third of Major League teams may decide to follow the Astro and Cub
model of collecting a half decade’s worth of top ten picks as a “rebuild”; and
players’ salaries might be starting to finally reach an equilibrium wherein
owners have decided that players are worth x despite players believing they are
worthy.
Next year's free agent class is stacked
Some of the most productive players in
baseball are among next year’s free agent class, including Marwin Gonzalez,
Daniel Murphy, Jose Altuve (club option), Elvis Andrus (opt out), Jose
Iglesias, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, and Clayton Kershaw (opt
out). With that list alone, plus many other above average players who can fill
roster spots or start towards the bottom of the order, there is no reason that
teams see a need to pay top dollar for players who, honestly, aren’t nearly as
good as they seem. While there are plenty of good players in this year’s free agent
class, it is a relatively weak class overall and next year’s will completely
blow it out of the water. Using the same projected performance metric as
earlier, the upcoming free agent class, not including players with opt outs or
options, will have a projected WARP of 23.9, sitting closer to the Cubs (21.8),
Yankees (22.1), Red Sox (22.3), and Indians (23.9). Keep in mind that this
doesn’t include some other high profile players who didn’t even make my
starting cut for this free agent team.
Teams are building through the draft
In the NFL and NBA, most first round picks
are on the roster and often find a way on to the field or court within their
first year of eligibility. Within the top ten picks of the draft, these players
are likely to become starters almost immediately, hopefully giving the worse
teams a better chance at next year’s championship. Tanking has existed in these
two sports for decades, but baseball has very rarely seen it likely because of
baseball’s minor league system. When a player is drafted, they often spend two
to four years in the system before coming up to become a part of the Major
League roster. After the recent success of the Chicago Cubs’ and Houston
Astros’ respective rebuilding processes, some of the lower third teams have
taken notice and may be tanking to better their own chances of finding
franchise players in the draft. Even
some General Managers like Seattle’s Jerry Dipoto have commented on it, with the Players’ Union not too pleased with the state of the game or free agency.
Free agents are more expensive than ever
This reason focuses much more on the
economics of baseball because, above all else, it is a business. We might be seeing the beginning of an
equilibrium point for player salaries in Major League Baseball. Since 2010, the
average player salary has increased by almost 35% (Source: http://www.mlbplayers.com/pdf9/5464230.pdf),
which may seem like a lot, but if you look before that year, salaries were
climbing up mountains since the strike in 1994. While the values of all Major
League teams have increased over that same period, owners and general managers
could be deciding that what the players are asking for is not what they are
worth for that specific team. And unfortunately for players, Major League
Baseball is a market of 30 teams. A final addendum to this point: the luxury
tax has become a ceiling that even the richest of teams (Yankees) are becoming wary of paying.
What does all of this mean? Is Major League
Baseball’s free agency broken? The simple answer is: Not yet. Is it unfortunate
for the players who have been hurt by this year’s free agency? Yes. However,
just because Major League Baseball had a poor offseason regarding free agency,
this doesn’t mean that this is the new normal. Three possible reasons were
brought up, and there are likely many more possibilities that could explain
this year. It could be an anomaly that we won’t see for another decade, or it
could be a pressing matter that the Players’ Union needs to address in the next
Collective Bargaining Agreement. There is no doubt in my mind that many of
these players will find homes before the season officially begins on March 29,
but it could come with a new precedent regarding salaries and future
negotiations.
Sean Kingsepp graduated from the University of New Haven in 2017 with a B.S. in Business Management (concentration in Management of Sport Industries) and a B.A. in Economics. An avid baseball fan, Sean has completed research projects for Bob Wirz and Associates as well as the University of New Haven Economics department.
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